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The USA, Ukraine, and Russia are unlikely to finalise a ceasefire agreement in the next three weeks

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia are unlikely to finalize a full ceasefire agreement within the next three weeks. While U.S. President Donald Trump set a "psychological deadline" for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Finland’s President Alexander Stubb suggested April 20 as a possible deadline.

Russia has tied any ceasefire in the Black Sea to Western sanctions relief, particularly reinstating Rosselkhozbank’s access to SWIFT. Despite ongoing U.S.-Ukraine talks since March 11, ISW analysts stress that key ceasefire terms remain unresolved, making a near-term deal improbable.

Russian forces occupied 133 sq km of Ukrainian land in March

Russian forces occupied 133 sq km of Ukrainian territory in March, a sharp decline compared to previous months, according to DeepState, a Ukrainian military analysis group.

"The effectiveness of Russian troops continues to decline," DeepState reported, noting that Ukraine’s monthly territorial losses have dropped nearly sixfold since November.

However, analysts warned that this does not signal a decrease in Russian aggression. Fighting has intensified on several fronts, particularly near Pokrovsk, where Russian offensives have escalated since mid-March.

Despite fatigue and challenges, Ukrainian forces continue to limit Russian advances. Some captured Russian soldiers reportedly had only days of training before deployment.

DeepState also highlighted concerns over Russia’s reserves in the Kursk region, with uncertainty over their deployment.

Russians continue using glide bomb strikes on frontline areas

Russian forces continue to launch guided aerial bomb strikes on Ukraine, with their aircraft remaining active around the clock, according to Colonel Yurii Ihnat of Ukraine’s Air Force Command.

While no attack drones were used overnight on March 31–April 1, Russian tactical aircraft persistently target frontline areas.

"Enemy aircraft activity is round-the-clock in the country's north and east," Ihnat said, adding that Ukraine’s air defense is working to counter these strikes with ground-based systems and fighter jets.