Daily Flyer - April 11, 2023

A voice of Ukraine to the West

Daily Flyer - April 11, 2023

Russians strike church in Kherson

On the night of 11 April, the Russian army shelled the Church of the Nativity of the Most Holy Theotokos in the city of Kherson.

Kherson Оblast Military Administration reported: "At night, Russian artillery attacked the Church of the Nativity of the Most Holy Theotokos. Because of the shelling, windows were blown out, and the roof and walls were damaged."

Civilians were not injured. Archpriest Vitalii Malanii said that the shelling occurred around two o'clock in the morning.

Leaks of classified documents caused a crisis in relations between the US and its allies

US officials are trying to reassure disappointed and embarrassed allies in Europe, the Middle East, and Kyiv after leaking classified information about the war in Ukraine and other global issues.

Politico, citing four sources.

After the leak became known last week, senior officials from the State Department, Pentagon, and US Intelligence contacted their foreign counterparts to reassure them.

One source said that members of the Five Eyes, an intelligence alliance of the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand, had asked Washington for briefings. The requests were sent separately to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the CIA, and the FBI. So far, they have not received a response.

Meanwhile, officials in London, Brussels, Berlin, Dubai, and Kyiv, the newspaper writes, have asked Washington how the information ended up on the Internet, who is responsible for the leak, what the United States is doing to get the information removed from social media, and whether the Biden administration is taking steps to prevent future intelligence leaks.

As of the morning of 10 April, US officials told allies that the administration was investigating and that they were still trying to understand the full extent of the leak, European officials told Politico.

Ukraine has long been concerned that the information it shares with the United States is being leaked to the public, the newspaper writes.

"This case showed that the Ukrainians were absolutely right about that. Americans now owe the Ukrainians. They have to apologize and compensate," said one of the European officials.

"The saga has left the U.S. relationship with its allies in a state of crisis, raising questions about how Washington will correct what officials worldwide view as one of the largest public breaches of U.S. intelligence since WikiLeaks dumped millions of sensitive documents online from 2006 to 2021," states Politico.

"The manner of the leak and the contents are very unusual. I can’t remember a time when there was this volume of a leak and this broad of a subject matter of authentic information that was just put on social media rather than, say, the Snowden files, that went through a group of journalists first," said a former US intelligence analyst who focused on Russia.

A senior US official told the newspaper that only the highest levels of the US government are discussing how to handle the leak. As of 9 April, even senior officials who work on policy toward Ukraine, Russia, and the countries mentioned in the documents did not know how the administration would respond to the leak.

"I have no idea what the plan is. I'd like to know myself how we’re going to handle it," another senior U.S. official said. "

At the same time, the newspaper notes, a senior Ukrainian lawmaker said the leak was "not seen as a big issue here."

However, according to one European official, the leak caused outrage among officials in the highest echelons of Ukraine's national security.

"While the documents are dated and likely have no immediate impact on the country’s battlefield operations, publishing the information was viewed internally as an embarrassment and potential long-term security problem for Ukraine's military commanders," writes Politico.



The US Department of Defence is still assessing the extent of the leak of classified information in recent weeks, which included information on the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the actions of US allies.

The US State Department claims that the incident with the publication of classified documents from the US Department of Defense will not affect its support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Earlier, the US Department of Justice launched an investigation into the leak of a huge number of US intelligence documents that have been posted on social media in recent weeks.

The US President's Administration does not yet know who is behind the leaked classified military documents.

According to The Washington Post, secret US documents show that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi planned to produce 40,000 missiles for Russia in February and instructed officials to keep the production and shipment of missiles secret "to avoid problems with the West."

US doubts the success of Ukrainian counteroffensive – media

American intelligence believes that Ukraine's problems with the accumulation of troops, ammunition, and equipment may lead to the fact that its military will "significantly lag" behind the original goals of Kyiv regarding the expected counteroffensive.

The Washington Post, referring to one of the secret US military documents,  reports: a gloomy assessment marked "top secret", dated early February, warns of significant "force generation and sustainment shortfalls", as well as the likelihood that such an operation will lead only to "modest territorial gains". This is a noticeable departure from the Biden administration's public statements about the combat capability of the Ukrainian army.

The document, which was not previously disclosed, is one of many materials about US national security discovered online last week.

The document, which predicts only modest success in Ukraine's upcoming counteroffensive, indicates that Kyiv's strategy is to recapture territories in the east and move south to break Russia's land bridge to Crimea. Powerful Russian defensive fortifications, combined with enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies, probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive, " the document writes.

The marking of the document indicates that the information was obtained using agent and radio intelligence, probably using secret methods used by the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency – ed.) and the National Security Agency. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which appears to have prepared the document, declined to comment, as did the National Security Council.

In addition to the leaked document, US officials said that the prospects for a modest outcome of the spring offensive are also supported by a classified assessment by the National Intelligence Council. This assessment, which was recently presented to a narrow circle of people on Capitol Hill, showed that Ukraine is unlikely to be able to reclaim as much territory as Kyiv won last fall during a stunning breakthrough in the east and south of the country, say people familiar with the matter.

In the weeks following the period described in the Merger Document, US officials held talks with the Ukrainian side to make sure Kyiv's offensive ambitions matched its capabilities, US officials said on condition of anonymity.

The exchange of views at the highest level took place in mid-March during a telephone conversation between General Mark A. Millie, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Jake Sullivan, National Security Adviser to the President, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, and their Ukrainian counterparts.

According to US officials, all sides came out of these conversations with the feeling that Ukraine is beginning to understand the limitations of what it can achieve in the offensive and is preparing accordingly. While the land bridge is unlikely to break, the interlocutors said, the United States hopes that gradual progress could at least jeopardize the free movement of Russian equipment and personnel in the corridor, which was a lifesaver for the invading forces.

The US State Department claims that the incident with the publication of classified documents from the US Department of Defense will not affect its support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Earlier, the US Department of Justice launched an investigation into the leak of many US intelligence documents posted on social media in recent weeks.