Daily Flyer - April 12-13, 2023
A voice of Ukraine to the West
Ukraine's Intelligence Chief said that only Russia would benefit from the Pentagon's documents leak
Kyrylo Budanov, the Chief of Ukrainian Defence Intelligence, has said that Russia will benefit the most from the large-scale leak of US government secrets that has dominated news headlines in recent days.
"Russia is the only beneficiary of this. We will get the final answer only after the completion of the investigation... We have communication with the relevant services in the U.S., and from literally the first hours, we started to talk," - Budanov said.
Major General Kyrylo Budanov made this comment on Wednesday evening in his office in Kyiv. He declined to comment on some of the most explosive revelations from the leak, including that US officials were listening in on internal Ukrainian discussions about the task of striking targets deep in Russia.
Budanov told ABC News that information warfare is nothing new.
The head of Ukrainian intelligence is convinced that there is "no risk" that the matter would damage relations between Ukraine and the United States.
He also doesn't expect the data leak to have much of an impact on the course of the war.
"If there is a problem, it will be solved if there is no problem, even better. This will not be able to affect the real results of the offensive operation," - he admitted.
Budanov spoke of the Ukrainian military's ability to succeed in the future and long-awaited counteroffensive against Russian forces, while US officials suggested in private conversations that success would be more modest than last year's lightning operation, which returned vast swathes of territory to the Ukrainian government control.
"What will be the results of these actions? I think that, in the near future, everyone will see and feel it," said the Chief of Ukrainian Defence Intelligence.
However, Budanov admitted that "the success of this offensive operation is badly needed", not only for the Ukrainians but also for the allies who supply them with funds and ammunition.
"Without victories, sooner or later, questions will be asked whether it's worth continuing to support Ukraine," he said, although he did not hear that further support from the West would depend on success on the battlefield.
Budanov again promised to take back the Crimean peninsula and mocked Russian President Vladimir Putin's undisguised nuclear threats and the failed "winter offensive" that ended with minimal gains and heavy losses.
Studying a map of Russia, Budanov predicted "seismic change" in the neighboring country, which he believes will play a role in ending Vladimir Putin's war in favor of Ukraine.
Russian air strikes hit multi-story buildings and a factory in Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Russian troops conducted air strikes on a residential area, multi-story buildings and a factory in the town of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 13 April.
The enemy carried out three air strikes on a residential area, multi-story buildings, and a factory in [the town of] Orikhiv. Emergency rescue workers are at the scene and dealing with the aftermath of the enemy attack.
The authorities reported that the extent of the damage is being established. There is no information on casualties.
Leaked classified documents: neither side will triumph in the war in Ukraine
According to the classified US materials that leaked online recently, the war between Ukraine and Russia is expected to last until 2024, with neither side winning. Still, both refused to negotiate an end to the conflict.
The Washington Post with reference to the"leaked" classified US intelligence materials.
The newspaper notes that even if Ukraine regains significant territories and inflicts "significant losses on Russian troops," which, according to US intelligence, is unlikely, the country's gains will not lead to peace talks.
"Negotiations to end the conflict are unlikely during 2023 in all considered scenarios," says the document, which has not been disclosed previously.
The assessment, based on a thorough US study of the number of troops, weapons, and equipment on each side, could encourage critics of the war who have called on major powers such as the United States and China to push Kyiv and Moscow to resolve and end the conflict, which has displaced millions of people and killed and wounded hundreds of thousands more.
In addition to predicting a costly open conflict, the newly released document also foresees how Ukrainian and Russian military leaders will respond to challenges on the battlefield, indicating that the year will end with only "minor" territorial gains for both sides as a result of "insufficient troops and supplies for effective operations."
The article points out that such a stalemate, where neither side achieves a decisive advantage, is described in the document as "the most likely scenario."
For the Ukrainian side, a war of attrition will lead to disappointment within the country and "criticism" of how the war is being conducted, increasing the likelihood of a leadership change, the document says.
The WP notes that whether we are talking about a military or a political change is unclear.
The document predicts that the stalemate will also lead to Ukraine announcing a "full mobilization" of the population.
At the same time, it is also likely to step up strikes on Russian territory. Some US officials are worried that such attacks could force President Vladimir Putin to escalate or give China a pretext to begin lethal support for Russia.
As for the Russian side, the stalemate will force Moscow to use "degraded reserves due to dwindling combat power," the document says. The Kremlin will also likely accelerate efforts to integrate the seized territories into Russia.