Russia likely to use ceasefire to prepare for new offensive against Ukraine - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns that freezing the front line at current positions would not prevent future Russian aggression. Analysts say the Kremlin could use a ceasefire to regroup and pursue broader territorial goals, especially if Western military aid to Ukraine is reduced.

The current front line offers Ukraine limited strategic depth, with Russian forces positioned dangerously close to major cities like Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv. Russia has also increased the use of armored vehicles, indicating a potential long-term campaign to seize more territory in Donetsk Oblast.

ISW also suggests that Russia may temporarily soften its demands—such as total control over occupied regions—in exchange for major concessions, like reduced Ukrainian forces or a pro-Russian government. Any ceasefire limiting U.S. arms supplies, they warn, would likely be exploited by Russia to prepare for renewed attacks.

Three people were injured in a large-scale attack by Russian drones in Poltava

Russian forces launched a large-scale drone attack on the Poltava hromada overnight on 22–23 April, injuring three people and damaging civilian infrastructure.

According to Poltava Oblast Military Administration Head Volodymyr Kohut, enemy UAVs struck premises belonging to businesses and open areas near civilian sites in the Podilskyi and Shevchenkivskyi districts of the city. The State Emergency Service later confirmed the injuries and reported damage to residential buildings, warehouses, garages, and business facilities. One drone crashed near a high-rise, shattering windows and damaging the facade.

A Hotel complex was on fire in Kyiv Oblast due to Russian attack

A fire broke out in a hotel and restaurant complex in Kyiv Oblast’s Brovary district due to debris from a downed Russian UAV, the State Emergency Service reported. Two buildings caught fire, but no casualties have been reported.

Russians hit the bus in Marganets, 9 dead, nearly 50 hundred injured

On the morning of April 23, a Russian FPV drone struck a bus carrying workers from a mining enterprise in the city of Marganets, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Local authorities report at least nine people killed and over 42 injured, most of them women with serious injuries.

President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the attack as a deliberate military crime, emphasizing that such Russian drone strikes on civilians have become tragically common. He noted that civilians in Kherson, Kupiansk, Pokrovsk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region — including Nikopol and Marganets — suffer most frequently from these attacks.

Marganets, an industrial center near the front line and across the Dnipro River from the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, plays a key role in manganese ore extraction and processing.

According to Ukraine’s Air Force, Russia launched a large overnight and morning drone assault, deploying 134 Shahed-type and other UAVs across Kharkiv, Poltava, Donetsk, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Ukrainian officials reveal details of meeting with Trump's Special Envoy Kellogg in London

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and Head of the President’s Office Andrii Yermak shared details of a meeting with U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg and European partners during a visit to London on 23 April.

Sybiha said the delegation had a “constructive exchange of views” on achieving peace, emphasizing that Ukraine seeks to end the war more than anyone else.

Yermak reiterated that a full and unconditional ceasefire must be the first step toward talks for a just and lasting peace. He underscored that Ukraine will firmly defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity in any negotiations.

Ukraine and the U.S. agreed to continue dialogue and maintain regular contact.