Daily Flyer - August 13, 2024

A voice of Ukraine to the West

Daily Flyer - August 13, 2024

The Austrian Energy Ministry says that cutting off Russian gas supplies could be risky for country

On August 13, the Austrian Energy Ministry warned of significant risks associated with a potential cut-off of Russian gas supplies, highlighting the country's continued dependency on Russian natural gas, as reported by Bloomberg.

Despite European efforts to reduce reliance on Russian gas, it remains a critical component of the EU’s energy imports. While Russia reduced pipeline gas transit to Europe in 2022, countries like Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia remain heavily dependent on Russian supplies.

The Austrian Energy Ministry emphasized that as long as the country depends on Russian gas, "there is a massive risk of a corresponding supply failure with far-reaching consequences." The ministry called for an urgent end to Austria's dependency on Russian gas.

According to the Austrian government's report, the country could replace Russian gas with supplies from Italy and Germany. However, without this transition, Austria's gas storage capacity could fall to 15% by 2026.

Austria's ruling coalition has pledged to end Russian gas imports by 2027 as part of a broader energy system transformation. A detailed roadmap is expected to be presented before the national elections on September 29. A more likely scenario involves ending Russian supplies by January 2025, sourcing new supplies via Italy to meet demand, and achieving a 60% storage capacity by 2027.

Despite a decrease in total gas imports from Russia, 98% of Austria's gas imports in December 2023 were from Russia, marking a record-high share. In 2018, Austria extended its gas supply contract with Russia until 2040. The Austrian government is now exploring the possibility of terminating the agreement with Gazprom ahead of schedule.

Russia will evacuate refugees from Kursk Oblast to the Russian-occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia Oblast

On August 13, Alexey Smirnov, the acting governor of Kursk Oblast, announced that refugees evacuated from Kursk Oblast will be resettled in Russian-occupied territories in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The Ukrainian military launched a surprise incursion into Kursk Oblast on August 6, marking the first time regular Ukrainian forces have entered Russian territory. Despite the arrival of Russian reinforcements, Ukrainian forces have continued to advance further into Kursk Oblast.

Yevhen Balytskyi, a Russian proxy leader in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, suggested equipping "sanatoriums and boarding houses on the shores of the Azov Sea, from Berdiansk to Kyrylivka," as temporary accommodation for the evacuees.

Initial flights will transport refugees to temporary accommodation centers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with volunteers arriving in Kursk Oblast to assist residents, according to Smirnov.

As of mid-2024, approximately 75% of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including major cities like Melitopol and Berdiansk, remains under Russian occupation, though the regional capital, Zaporizhzhia, is not occupied.

Russian regional authorities reported that as of August 12, Ukraine controls 28 settlements in Kursk Oblast, with Ukrainian forces reportedly advancing up to 12 kilometers deep along a 40-kilometer front. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that about 1,000 square kilometers of Kursk Oblast is under Ukrainian control.

Reports also indicate that Ukrainian forces have entered Belgorod Oblast, with claims of displaying a Ukrainian flag in the village of Poroz in the Grayvoronsky border district.

Amid the Ukrainian cross-border incursions, about 11,000 residents of the Krasnoyaruzhsky district in Russia's Belgorod Oblast have been displaced, according to Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov.

Kursk incursion has not yet influenced the situation near Toretsk

On August 13, Oleksandr Bordiian, a spokesperson for the 32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, stated that the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast has yet to affect the fighting in the Toretsk sector of Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces continue to attack Toretsk despite the operation, with battles now reaching the town's outskirts. Bordiian noted that Russia has increased the frequency of airstrikes and deployed sabotage groups to the area.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry had previously suggested that the cross-border operation in Kursk Oblast aims to divert Russian troops from Donetsk Oblast. While the intensity of ground attacks has slightly decreased, Russia is compensating with more frequent strikes using guided aerial bombs, according to Bordiian.

Fighting is ongoing near Toretsk, particularly in the Pivnichne-Zalizne agglomeration, with Russia using small sabotage groups to infiltrate Ukrainian positions.

The Toretsk sector has become a significant battleground, with heavy fighting also reported near Pokrovsk. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on August 5 that Russia had made notable tactical advances in the Toretsk direction, with geolocated footage showing Russian forces in Druzhba, east of Toretsk.

Russia continues its push against other Donetsk Oblast towns, including Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk.

Russian attacks against Ukraine killed 5, injured 25 over the past day

On August 13, Russian attacks across Ukraine resulted in at least five civilian deaths and 25 injuries, including children.

In Donetsk Oblast, four civilians were killed and four others injured. Specifically, two people died and one was injured in Ukrainsk, two were killed and one wounded in Kostiantynivka, and a strike in Toretsk resulted in one death and two injuries.

In Kharkiv Oblast, three people were injured. A 75-year-old woman was hurt in Bohodukhiv, four children suffered shock, a 49-year-old woman was injured in Zabrody, and a 72-year-old man was wounded in Vovchansk.

Kherson Oblast saw one death and at least 17 injuries, including two children. The attacks damaged seven high-rise buildings, 36 houses, a gas pipeline, and other infrastructure.

In Sumy, a missile strike damaged a hospital and energy infrastructure, injuring one person and causing power and gas outages in parts of the city.

Other regions, including Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Vinnytsia, were attacked, though no casualties were reported.

Ukrainian air defenses shot down 30 of 38 Shahed-type drones launched by Russia overnight. The drones were fired from Primorsko-Akhtarsk and Kursk Oblast, with two ballistic missiles launched from Voronezh Oblast.

The situation near Toretsk remains difficult

The situation around Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast remains challenging as Russian forces continue assault operations and engage in fighting on the outskirts of the town. Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are also active in the area.

Oleksandr Bordiian, acting press officer of the 32nd Separate Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reported that battles are occurring in the urban area, including the settlements of Pivnichne and Zalizne, which are near Toretsk. He noted that while the fighting continues intensely, there has been a slight increase in the number of Russian soldiers surrendering.

Bordiian highlighted that the intensity of attacks with guided aerial bombs has increased, although the overall level of artillery and drone attacks remains stable. The Ukrainian military has detected and neutralized sabotage groups attempting to infiltrate their positions.

The DeepState analytical project and the Ukrainian General Staff have reported Russian advances on the Toretsk front, particularly around Panteleimonivka, Pivnichne, and New-York. Over the past day, Russian troops have attacked Ukrainian forces near Zalizne, Toretsk, and New-York multiple times.