Russia launched the most massive drone attack on Kyiv so far in 2024

On July 31, the Kyiv City Military Administration reported the most extensive drone attack on Kyiv in 2024. Air defense forces successfully destroyed over 40 drones in the city's airspace and surrounding areas.

Serhii Popko, head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, stated that this attack was one of the most significant since the full-scale invasion began and the largest one this year.

The attack lasted over seven hours, with drones approaching Kyiv in waves from nearly all directions. Approximately 11,500 people sought refuge in the city's underground subway stations, according to city authorities.

A residential building in Kyiv Oblast caught fire after being hit by falling debris from a downed drone, as reported by the State Emergency Service.

Serhii Popko noted on June 30 that the Russian military is attempting new tactics to attack Kyiv. He mentioned that Russia is "looking for the right time, methods, and means to hit Kyiv," as he wrote on Telegram.

First F-16 fighter jets arrived in Ukraine

Ukraine has received its first batch of fourth-generation U.S.-made F-16 jets, Bloomberg reported on July 31, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter. This delivery marks a significant milestone, coming a year after the "fighter jet coalition" was established at the Vilnius NATO summit under the leadership of Denmark and the Netherlands.

As of now, Kyiv has yet to confirm these reports.

Ukraine is expected to receive at least 79 F-16s from the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, and Norway, with deliveries to continue over the coming years. The fighter jet coalition has also pledged to help train Ukrainian pilots and technical staff to operate the jets.

The General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon is an American air superiority fighter that Kyiv has been requesting since the start of the full-scale invasion. While some defense experts do not anticipate the F-16s becoming game-changers in the war, the jets are expected to bolster Ukraine's air defense capabilities and help shield the country's population centers from Russia's daily bombardments.

Navy Commander Oleksii Neizhpapa stated that the forthcoming delivery of F-16s to Ukraine would challenge Russia's "full dominance" of the skies over the Black Sea.

Denmark and the Netherlands have indicated that they would allow Ukraine to use F-16s to strike inside Russia, although Copenhagen mentioned that such actions would "depend on the circumstances."

Russia resorts to periodic impulsive attacks because of its limited capabilities

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that due to a lack of capacity for a large-scale offensive in Ukraine, Russian forces are resorting to impulsive mechanized attacks that are costly for both sides. Recently, Russia carried out five such attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on July 29 and 30. These localized offensives suggest a Russian summer offensive but indicate a lack of broader operational capability to launch a major assault in Donetsk or elsewhere this summer.

According to ISW, Russia is attempting to seize Kostiantynivka and cut the Vuhledar-Kostiantynivka T-0524 highway, which could force a Ukrainian retreat. Throughout the war, Russia has struggled with simultaneous large-scale offensives, often opting for staggered attacks across different fronts. This summer, Russian forces have periodically launched platoon and company-sized assaults in Donetsk Oblast, with an uptick in attacks around Donetsk city.

The ISW suggests that Russia's military command may view these intermittent assaults as aligning with their revised goals for summer 2024, using limited tactical gains as a way to claim significant victories despite heavy losses. This approach could strain Russia's military capabilities long-term, as they push depleted forces to advance without achieving major operational successes.