Kremlin increases pressure on Europe regarding war in Ukraine amid uncertainty in US

The Kremlin is increasing efforts to influence European countries regarding the war in Ukraine, capitalizing on uncertainty surrounding future US policy, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW analysts note that Russia is employing "reflexive control" tactics to sway Western decision-making in its favor, particularly as negotiations about the war's resolution loom. This strategy seeks to preemptively influence talks or force Western governments to push Ukraine toward premature peace agreements.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent phone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz illustrates these efforts. During the conversation, Putin reiterated Kremlin narratives aimed at persuading Germany and other European powers to favor peace talks over continued military support for Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized the call, warning that such dialogue could play into Putin’s hands by reducing his international isolation and advancing Russian terms for negotiations, which remain unacceptable to Ukraine.

ISW highlights that Russia has ramped up its rhetoric to influence foreign policy under the incoming US administration led by President-elect Donald Trump. Senior officials, including Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, have also engaged with Western political and military leaders, promoting Kremlin narratives to extract concessions on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Despite these efforts, Ukraine's Western allies continue to provide robust military aid through various platforms, standing firm against Russia's attempts to undermine Ukraine’s position in the conflict.

Russia producing thermobaric drones, capable of causing dramatic damage to civilians

Russia has begun producing thermobaric drones capable of causing severe damage, including penetrating thick walls and harming civilians. These drones will be used alongside decoys to overwhelm Ukraine's air defenses and target energy infrastructure, especially ahead of winter.

The drones rely on components from Iran and China, with reports indicating secret production in China despite Beijing's claims of neutrality. This escalation in drone warfare highlights Russia's strategy to intensify pressure on Ukraine while complicating international efforts to limit its defense capabilities.

Russia trains North Korea in modern warfare which may lead to a wider destabilisation - Zelenskyy tells Japan's foreign minister

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a new aid package from Japan, increasing Japan's support for Ukraine to $12 billion since the war began. During a meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, Zelenskyy emphasized the threats posed by Russia's growing cooperation with North Korea, including military activities in Kursk Oblast and training in modern warfare, which could destabilize the region.

The two leaders also discussed sanctions against Russia, economic collaboration, Ukraine's recovery, and efforts to achieve a just peace. Zelenskyy is preparing for discussions with Japan's new prime minister.