Upcoming winter will be most difficult for Ukraine's energy sector

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a warning that the upcoming winter will present the most significant challenge to Ukraine's energy sector since the Russian full-scale invasion. Many power plants have been either destroyed or severely damaged, raising concerns about the country's ability to maintain a stable energy supply.

According to The Guardian, the IEA has proposed ten measures to help restore Ukraine's energy infrastructure, though specific details were not disclosed. IEA Director General Fatih Birol emphasized that while Ukraine's energy system has endured the last two winters, this winter will undoubtedly be its most difficult test yet.

The IEA report highlighted that about half of Ukraine's power-generating capacity has been compromised due to Russian occupation or damage, with approximately half of the country's large grid substations also targeted by missiles and drones. Ukraine has reportedly lost over two-thirds of its electricity generation capacity since the war began, creating a critical gap between supply and peak demand.

Birol urged European nations to expedite the delivery of equipment and spare parts necessary for repairs, while also implementing measures to safeguard these facilities from drone strikes.

Ukraine managed to use momentum and launched incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast despite Russia's awareness – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have highlighted that Ukraine's military managed to capitalize on weaknesses in Russia’s defenses to carry out an operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, despite the fact that Russia had been preparing for this possibility for months.

In the lead-up to August 2024, Russian authorities were reportedly aware of the imminent risk of a Ukrainian incursion but failed to take adequate preventive measures. Documents obtained by Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast and reviewed by The Guardian suggest that local Russian commanders had repeatedly urged the military leadership to prepare for an offensive as early as late 2023. These calls included requests for enhanced personnel training, the construction of additional defensive fortifications, and preparations for trench warfare. However, little was done to bolster defenses.

One document noted that units along the Russian border were operating at just 60-70% of their intended strength and were primarily manned by inadequately trained reservists by June 2024.

The ISW’s report indicates that Ukrainian forces managed to achieve operational surprise despite Russia’s knowledge of a potential attack. Ukrainian forces leveraged the ambiguity surrounding their capabilities and strategic intentions, successfully using innovative tactics, including ground operations and unmanned systems.

This campaign underscores that even in a partially transparent battlefield, where adversaries can observe troop concentrations, maintaining operational surprise remains possible when intent and capabilities are well-concealed.

Russia says it will not take part in follow-up peace summit

Russia has declared that it will not participate in any future iterations of the Swiss-hosted peace summit held in June, calling the process a "fraud," according to Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on September 21. Moscow was not invited to the summit, which was attended by over 90 countries, and dismissed the discussions as irrelevant without its involvement.

Despite Russia's absence, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains hopeful for a follow-up meeting by the end of the year, with the goal of eventually including Russia. However, Zakharova harshly criticized the summit, calling it "another manifestation of fraud by the Anglo-Saxons and their Ukrainian puppets." She stated that Russia is only open to considering serious proposals that reflect the "situation on the ground," referencing Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian regions, none of which it fully controls.

Zakharova accused Ukraine and its Western allies of lacking any genuine interest in peace, pointing to Ukraine's recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk region and Zelensky’s persistent requests for long-range Western weapons. She argued that neither Ukraine nor its supporters are committed to a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

Before the June summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin had outlined conditions for negotiations, including Ukraine's surrender of the four annexed regions. Russia has since stated that it will not engage in talks as long as Ukrainian forces remain active in the Kursk region.

Meanwhile, Zelensky is preparing to present his "victory plan" during an upcoming visit to the U.S., which is expected to address military, political, diplomatic, and economic strategies aimed at ending the war with Ukraine’s victory. However, Kyiv has been tight-lipped about the specifics of the plan.