Daily Flyer - September 7, 2024

A voice of Ukraine to the West

Daily Flyer - September 7, 2024

Russia received from Iran the first batch of short-range ballistic missiles

According to initial reports, the Iranian regime may have already transferred over 200 ballistic missiles to Russia. Additionally, Russia is expected to receive Iranian long-range missiles in the next shipment, according to The Times.

This growing military collaboration between Moscow and Tehran could significantly impact the security of several Ukrainian cities. Intelligence reports suggest that Putin's forces might soon acquire Fath-300 missiles, capable of striking targets over 110 kilometers away.

However, experts warn that this is just the beginning of Russia's arms partnership with Iran. Analysts predict that the next shipment could include long-range missiles with a reach of up to 500 kilometers.

The weapons were reportedly delivered from Iran by a Russian ship to a port on the Caspian Sea. Experts believe that the arrival of these missile systems could be a turning point, as it would greatly enhance Russia's ability to strike Ukrainian cities from extended ranges.

Russia is increasing its capabilities to launch high-precision strikes deep into Ukraine

Russia is continuing to expand its capability to conduct deep precision strikes on Ukrainian territory, significantly increasing its procurement of ballistic missiles from Iran and North Korea, while also ramping up its own weapons production, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The ISW report highlights U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's assertion that no single weapon system will decisively alter the course of the war for Ukraine. However, the report critiques this viewpoint, arguing that while no single system may be a game-changer, the combined effect of weapon systems and the rules governing their use can significantly impact Ukrainian military capabilities, potentially altering the war's trajectory. The report underscores that Western military aid remains crucial for Ukraine's defense, particularly for the long-range strikes needed to disrupt Russian operations.

The ISW points out that a significant portion of Russian military sites—209 out of 245 known locations—fall within the range of ATACMS missiles, which could potentially be used under limited conditions as per current U.S. policies. These sites, however, are not within the range of the HIMARS systems that Ukraine is currently allowed to use.

Austin also suggested that Ukraine possesses its own long-range strike capabilities, beyond the reach of Western-supplied Storm Shadow missiles. However, the ISW notes that Ukraine's long-range capabilities largely consist of domestically produced UAVs, which, due to payload limitations, are less effective than missiles. Additionally, these drones are more easily countered by Russian forces.

The ISW report emphasizes that while Ukraine has developed and deployed some long-range precision weapons with payloads comparable to Western missiles, it currently lacks the quantity needed to pose a serious threat to Russian military targets on a large scale. The limited number of domestically produced long-range systems and the restricted use of Western-provided HIMARS further constrain Ukraine's ability to target Russian sites effectively.

The ISW concludes that long-range strikes on Russian military targets would significantly challenge Russia's operational capabilities, particularly in areas such as air defense, electronic warfare, logistics, and command and control. The current limitations on Ukraine's long-range strike capacity, largely due to Western decisions, continue to suppress the full potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Russia targeted Kyiv neighborhoods with drones

In the early hours of September 7, Russia launched a drone attack on Kyiv, leading to debris falling near several residential buildings and possibly a kindergarten, according to the Kyiv City Military Administration.

Residents reported hearing drones and a series of loud explosions shortly after 3 a.m. local time. Serhii Popko, the head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, stated that air defense units were actively repelling the drone attack on the capital.

Debris from one intercepted drone fell in the yard of an apartment building in the Pechersk district, igniting a fire in an open area covering 50 square meters, which was later extinguished. Another fire broke out at a different location in the Pechersk district due to falling drone fragments, with debris landing at four different addresses in the district.

Preliminary reports indicated that debris also struck a kindergarten in the Dniprovsky district, though the details of that strike are still under investigation.

Emergency workers were dispatched to all the affected sites, and no casualties have been reported. Popko confirmed that air defense units successfully intercepted all drones targeting the city.