Elections in Ukraine: Potential Threats and Challenges

Regular President and Parlament elections were to be held in Ukraine in 2024. However, it is known that the Ukrainian Constitution prohibits any elections during the Marshall Law on its territory. Thus, President Zelenskiy and the current Parlament continue to perform their duties, maintaining a surprisingly stable political situation in the country.

Today, the issue of elections has become a significant dilemma for Ukraine. The former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who was Zalennkiys main rival in the previous elections and represents the opposition to the current majority in the Parlament, has firmly opposed the idea, asserting that initiating electoral processes amid war could undermine national unity and inadvertently benefit Russia.

Some Western partners advocated the idea of elections in Ukraine, expressing their concern about the violation of the main principles of democracy. Historical precedents such as Winston Churchill`s decision to postpone the elections during World War II are often cited in support of the argument against the elections in Ukraine in the time of war.

Vladimir Putin, the President of the aggressor country, has repeatedly stated that Ukraine must hold elections. He claimed he would negotiate with the newly elected President of Ukraine, not recognizing Zelenskiy's legitimacy.

Signs that elections in Ukraine are unavoidable were also sent by the new US administration. Recently, Keith Kellog, Donald Trump`s special envoy to Ukraine, acknowledged that the Constitution of Ukraine prohibits elections during active fighting but still believes that they are needed.
According to Kellog, "every democratic country has elections." In particular, he recalled that the United States held elections during wars.

Indeed, the USA held elections in 1944 during World War II, but it is worth noting that Ukraine's war experience is remarkably different from that of the USA during World War II. With nearly 20% of occupied territory, the length of the frontline more than 970 km(602 miles), the significant number of soldiers involved in the conflicts and staggering amount of internally displaced civilians and refugees abroad, the scale and impact of the situation are profound.

President Zelenskiy assured the public that he is not clinging to his presidential power and that elections in Ukraine will be held after the end of the hot phase of the war and the abolition of martial law.

If a peace treaty is achieved later this year as the USA administration anticipates, will Ukraine be ready for the elections, and what might the elections entail?

Security risks

Even in the event of a ceasefire, holding elections in Ukraine would still pose considerable security challenges. Ceasefires are often fragile and can break down unexpectedly, making it difficult to guarantee the safety of voters and election officials. The threat of localized violence, sabotage, or provocations by hostile elements remains high. 880 thousand soldiers who are involved in battles at the frontline and are guarding the borders of Ukraine in the North are potential voters and might become excellent targets at the polling stations in case Russia decides to break the ceasefire and destabilize the situation.
Furthermore, de-mining operations and removing unexploded ordnance would be required to make some areas safe for public gatherings, including voting. Security forces would need to be diverted from strategic defense operations to protect polling stations and ensure the secure transport of ballots. Additionally, there would still be concerns about cyber threats and attempts by foreign actors to manipulate the election process. Even with a ceasefire, the stability required for free and fair elections may be difficult to achieve.

Limited voter participation

Limited voter is a significant concern for elections in Ukraine during or shortly after the war. Today, Ukraine has 4.6 m of internally displaced people and 4.2 million refugees abroad. It creates challenges for their participation in the voting process. The goverment has to solve the problem of creating secure polling stations for internally displaced persons and develop mechasnisms for refugees to vote from abroad.
Participation in elections among refugees is likely to be very low. Many refugees may choose to ignore the elections because they might have no desire to return home and would be focused instead on building their lives in their new countries.
Those in occupied or heavily affected regions may be unable to participate at all due to safety concerns or restricted access. This uneven voter representation risks undermining the democratic legitimacy of the election, as entire demographics may be excluded from the political process, skewing the results and eroding public trust in the outcome.

Diverting resources

Holding elections during or shortly after the war in Ukraine would divert critical resources away from essential defense and humanitarian efforts. Organizing elections requires significant financial investment, manpower, and logistical coordination, all of which are currently focused on supporting military operations and aiding civilians affected by the war. Security personnel must be reassigned from frontline duties to protect polling stations and election officials, weakening the country’s defense capabilities. Additionally, administrative and communication infrastructure damaged by the war would need to be repaired or replaced, consuming valuable funds and time in a period when every resource is needed to secure national survival and stability, conducting elections risks undermining Ukraine’s ability to respond effectively to the ongoing crisis.

Political instability

Elections just after achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine could fuel political instability at a time when national unity is crucial. Wartime conditions often heighten political tensions, as accusations of fraud, manipulation, or voter disenfranchisement are more likely to emerge. Competing factions may exploit the volatile environment to challenge the legitimacy of the election results, leading to internal divisions and protests. This could weaken public trust in democratic institutions and distract from the critical task of rebuilding the nation and securing peace. Political instability would also provide adversaries, particularly Russia, with opportunities to destabilize Ukraine further through disinformation campaigns and covert operations. An unstable political situation in Ukraine would work in Putin`s favor, and it is quite likely the reason why Putin wants elections in Ukraine to be held.

In conclusion

While elections are a foundation of democracy, holding them in Ukraine during or shortly after the war presents significant threats and challenges. Security risks remain high, with the possibility of renewed violence even during a ceasefire. Logistical obstacles, such as damaged infrastructure and the displacement of millions, would hinder fair voter participation. Diverting critical resources to organize elections could weaken national defense and humanitarian efforts. Moreover, the potential for political instability and external interference threatens the credibility of any electoral process. Therefore, while the desire to uphold democratic principles is commendable, careful consideration must be given to ensuring that elections, when held, genuinely reflect the people's will in a secure and stable environment.