Kursk Incursion: Success or Failure?

On August 6 2024 Ukrainian armed forces invaded the territory of the Russian Federation and rapidly captured a significant part of Kursk oblast. This operation was performed brilliantly, earned a lot of excitement in the world press, and created a wave of euphoria among the population of Ukraine.

The key to the operation's success was that the Ukrainian military command and authorities kept it secret until the beginning of the incursion. In the beginning, it seemed like a crushing blow to the reputation of the Russian military command and personally Vladimir Putin and that the operation would change the course of the war.

It was assumed that Russia would withdraw a significant number of troops from the frontline and rush to liberate the captured part of its land. It would slow down or even stop the Russian offensive in the Donetsk region and weaken the front line.

But the outcome of the Kursk incursion was somewhat different. The occupation of the Donetsk region became even more precipitous. Since the beginning of the Kursk operation, Russian forces have captured five times more Ukrainian territory than they managed to seize throughout the entirety of 2023. Over 500 square kilometers were captured in just two months. Ukraine has lost an important town like Vuhledar and Russian forces are on their way to capture Pokrovsk which will allow them to approach the border of the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region.

The main reason for such rapid Russian advance was the fact that Ukrainian military command concentrated the most skilled units of soldiers in Kursk oblast to hold the territory while, in the Donetsk region, Russian attacks were supposed to be countered by unskilled recruits with nearly zero motivation to fight. These recruits were mostly forcibly drafted in streets of Ukrainian towns and just after two weeks of training sent to the frontline.

Russia didn`t swallow the bait. The key figures of the Russian Federation have reputedly made it clear that Russia won`t change the Kursk oblast to any of the occupied territories of Ukraine. Although Russians withdrew some number of troops from the frontline to confront Ukrainian forces in the Kursk oblast and even liberated some settlements it didn't affect the process of capturing the Donetsk region. It is worth mentioning that Russians managed to build fortifications nearer the town of Kurchatov where the Nuclear Powe Plant is located on short notice. It significantly reduced or even made it impossible for Ukrainian armed forces to capture the NPP, which would have been a great exchange fund creating a possibility to bring back the occupied Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant.

More than two months into the Kursk incursion operation, and given Ukraine's territorial losses in the Donetsk region, questions arise about the relevance and feasibility of holding onto a thousand square meters of land, considering the substantial resources required to maintain it and stretch the frontline. It should be borne in mind that the Kursk operation was not without losses. Ukrainian army lost personnel and valuable military equipment given by Western allies which would be helpful to reflect the Russian advance in Donetsk oblast.

The answer to the question about the success or failure of the Kurs operation will probably be in the upcoming months. It is quite possible that by the end of the year, there will be a flow of rather critical debunking assessments from Western allies regarding the Kursk operation.

Notably, Ukraine begged Western partners to refrain from criticizing the Kursk operation a week ago just before the Rammstein meeting that was subsequently pushed back.