Serious Concerns Emerge Over Ukraine’s Demographic Situation

The demographic situation in Ukraine before the full-scale invasion in February of 2022 was quite complicated. The population of Ukraine has been reducing since the country gained independence in 1991. The reasons for that were low birth rates, high mortality, and waves of migration.

Demographics before the war

In 1991 the population of Ukraine was approximately 52 million, but before the full-scale invasion, this number decreased to 41 million in 2021.

In 2021 the demographic situation in Ukraine was so complex that the UN recognized Ukraine`s population as the most reducing population in the world.

About a third of Ukrainians die before the age of 65 and at that time there were approximately 3 million Ukrainian workers abroad.

Demographics during the war

The war has worsened the disappointing demographic situation in the country, increasing the likelihood of a demographic catastrophe.

More than 6 million Ukrainian refugees have left Ukraine. Approximately 40% of Ukrainian refugees are children. Another 20% are men of various ages and health conditions. And the rest are women.

Many Ukrainians found a new life abroad and, according to the UN, about 65% of Ukrainians are willing to return. Over the course of the more than two years of the full-scale war, the share of people with such intentions decreased from 77%.

The difficult situation caused by the war, unstable power system, and threat of blackouts in the cold season makes a lot of citizens make uneasy decision to leave the country. Many of them have lost hope in the quick end of the war, and relentless Russian drone and missile strikes have made living in a number of cities life-threatening.

   The mobilization law also had it`s impact on demographics. Many men, fearing to be caught up in the war, left the country by not quite legal means. The exact number of such refugees is unknown, but its clear that they don't consider to come back even when the war is over.

As the result of big number of mobilized men, military loses and outflow of men population abroad women in Ukraine are replacing men in "male" professions.Women truck and bus drivers, welders at metallurgical plants, and warehouse workers. The lack of men labour will definitely have its impact on the economy of Ukraine and seems like the Government doesn`t have a solution for it at the moment.

The current demographics

Ukraine conducted only one official population census 23 years ago — in 2001. According to the received data, 48.5 million people lived in the country at that time.

According to analytic center "Ukrainian Institute of the Future" as for today the current population of Ukraine is 29 million.

17 million ar not economically active . 8 million of them are pensioners, 4.8 children under 15 years old.

12 million - economically active population: 9.1-9.5 million - employed, 2.5-2.9 million - unemployed.

The Ukrainian Institute for the Future notes: the threat that in a few years there will simply be no one to create GDP and rebuild the country in Ukraine is quite real.

The demographic forecast

Ukraine’s post-war demographic future is difficult to predict, but it is clear that it will be highly complex. A lot depends on how long those war will last, and how many more Ukrainains will leave the country? What the total military loses will be like?

Chances that Ukrainian refugees will return are reducing as the war continues.More than half of Ukrainians are already working abroad. They adapt to their new environments, with children attending schools or kindergartens, as required in many countries.

Alredy it is possible to foresee a wave of immigration after the war.some of the men will probably go to their wives who have settled and adapted abroad. Many others will leave Ukraine due to the complex post war economical situation.

Therefore Ukrinian Government has to implement a number of measures to prevent the deepening of the demographic crisis and to ensure that the conditions for overcoming it are met as soon as possible.